China’s plans could start to go wrong. Maybe because of a bad move, maybe because of bad foresight, or maybe because they didn’t have the cunning of their biggest rival. Either way, China is the country that has consumed the most integrated circuits (ICs) since 2005 and now faces a tough problem to crack as its long-term plan starts to falter.
Made in China 2025 would not take place, how will they cope with failure?
The production of integrated circuits in China gave figures at the end of 2020 well below those initially expected and as expected by its government. And is that this production was only 15.9% in its home market, which was worth $ 143.4 billion this year, an increase not as large as expected given that they started in 2010 from 10.2%.
The forecasts are also not encouraging and although they will mark a step forward, in 2025 the participation of the Asian country will only increase by 3.5 points to reach the 19.4%, extremely far from the objective imposed by the government of 70%, something unreal that they already know they won’t achieve.
And it is that if the manufacture of integrated circuits increases by 43,200 million in 2025, said production would only suppose the 7.5% of the world market, which would give dizzying figures of 577,900 million, clearly insufficient and where there is already a BPA for the resale of products from one company to another.
US manages to stop coup, for now
Talking about 4 years in advance today is not too trivial when you take into account that an industry evolves much more slowly than a specific sector. The United States halted part of the Chinese coup, at least in terms of market expansion, because TSMC SK Hynix, Samsung, Intel and UMCIn addition, other foreign companies continue and will continue to have a presence in the Asian country with IC wafer factories.
The minimum wage does not appear to be able to grow at the rate expected by the US bans, and this is also a determining factor, so it is believed that China will likely continue to account for only about 10% of the global integrated circuit market. ‘by 2025.
Or at least those are the estimates, which means there won’t be too many changes from where we are today. But there are a lot of games and chips to move around, especially if NVIDIA ultimately fails to get approval from some countries to purchase ARM, as it would dominate a booming, global market with a unprecedented expansion and above all, because it would have linked China and its technologies with a very short cord.
