We said it this week and today we already have confirmation thanks to the survey carried out by the firm Techcet, which says some very interesting things that we have already sensed and anticipated. And it is that despite the efforts of the industry and its advances in terms of production, the shortage of chips will stay with us longer, too…
Semiconductor predictions are not good
The projection of the most important component of any chip, its wafers, is not proceeding as expected and is insufficient for today’s market despite slowing shipments and therefore sales. In other words, not enough chips and wafers are produced despite the fact that demand is falling, which is obviously a major problem because the forecasts with these semiconductors are far from over.
To give concrete data, the report states that in the most common tranches of 300 millimeters they throw nothing less than 7,200 units per month (WPM)a value close to what was expected, but by customizing chips to a higher level for customers, it seems to delay some volume and manufacturers, despite lower shipments, increase demand.
We already saw this scenario yesterday and it could lead to inflation in the sector where supply is ahead of demand and then the investment forecast fails when the money has already been spent and put into practice which would leave higher prices considering all that has been said for the tokens.
Rarity, time and China
SEMI, the consortium of wafer manufacturers gives more encouraging data, but these at the same time have a double bottom. And it is that despite the fact that the ability of the platelets to 200 millimeters reached the record of 6.9 million per month Since manufacturers are turning to these for their higher volume, these numbers aren’t exactly good as such.
Revenues will increase for these more than 14% in 2022 and it is estimated that production capacity will increase by at least one 21% until 2024, where it is now certain that supply and demand should start to stabilize. In other words, the semiconductor crisis should be over end of 2024 or beginning of 2025 where there would be fries for everyone.
This is partly because manufacturers’ investments in their FABs, such as new ones from Intel and TSMC, will be ready in at least the next two years, bringing more chips to market. But what if demand continues to decline? The PC market is in the doldrums, telecommuting has hit steady levels, the auto industry is experiencing record sales in the negative, and something similar is happening with smartphones.
If this trend continued like this, the crisis would obviously not end in 2024 or 2025, but that would not bring prices down because, as they say, the investments will be in vain, the projects would already be launched and a large part of the money would be spent on capacity that would not be so needed So ultimately it would be the consumer once again who would have to pay a price premium to cover losses, because no chipmaker can do anything about it except Intel.
To all of this China is fishing in troubled waters, as its wafer FABs are selling more than ever backed by demand that other manufacturers can’t cover at the moment, the problem is that the numbers still don’t add up for the moment since the country is facing a terrible wave of COVID-19 and on top of that the price of energy continues to skyrocket which does not help that despite the fact that more chips are sold, their price drops. Is the perfect storm coming?
