It’s Super Bowl week, which means the esports news cycle is full of the same old shit every year. Empty interviews, recaps of past Super Bowls, endless predictions about who’s going to win on Sunday… and one prediction in particular that comes like clockwork every season.
I get it, the Super Bowl is the biggest game of the season, and pundits have two full weeks of anticipation to build on. Trying to figure out which of the two teams will emerge victorious is a simple odds pull/pageview generator. However, most of these calls are made by men and women doing some calculations in their own heads; only Driving me crazy try it through the art of simulation.
As it has since Super Bowl XXXVIII in 2003, EA Sports has run the teams and rosters for the big game through its system, played a game and scored a result. The result was a 31-17 win for the Eagles over the Chiefs.
Before you bank that, though, either because you’re an Eagles fan or have a deep belief in the sanctity of maddens Player ratings and matchday authenticity, you should know that EA Sports is paying a lot of attention to these simulations, and for all the attention that is being paid to them – this year forecast has its own trailer– The game’s track record doesn’t get much better than tossing a coin.
Since that first public attempt in 2003 Driving me crazy successfully predicted the winner of the game 11 times, which means it was wrong 8 times (you can check out a full rundown of each result Here). That 11-8 record is over .500, you might say, enough to at least make the playoffs and certainly more accurate than most meat-based pundits. Especially considering the Super Bowl XLIX prediction was the game very accurate and not only nails the winner but also the exact result (NE 28 – 24 SEA).
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But in recent years the wheels have fallen off! For the first decade of his simulations Driving me crazy almost always the winner is right. However, for four of the last five years and six of the last nine years, his predictions have landed in the L column, meaning you just can’t count on predicting Sunday’s winner with any greater accuracy than tossing a coin and to roll some dice or ask an octopus to crawl towards a flag (actually, to be fair Paul was very good at his job).
All of this means that based on this 31-17 prediction, I’m looking forward to seeing the Chiefs win 24-10.
