June was a very good month for the Mac. Not only did we get to see the next version of macOS at Sonoma, but we also got a new 15-inch MacBook Air that will be a hit, a Mac Studio update, the M2 Ultra chip, and to top it off, we finally got a new Apple Silicon Mac Pro.
That’s a lot of Mac goodness, which is great because they might need to hold us back for a while. Based on projected chip production schedules and the current state of the Mac lineup, it’s very possible that the only new Mac we’ll have by the first few months of 2024 will be the release of macOS Sonoma.
That means more Mac hardware, probably for the next six to eight months and maybe even longer. But there’s a lot to be expected, a change that could spark another big wave of Mac releases.
The M3 is coming
Apple’s Ultra chip in its M-series is the company’s high-end processor, and the latest Ultra has just been released as the M2 Ultra in Mac Studio and Mac Pro. The M2 lineup is now set because Apple isn’t expected to release an M2 chip that’s better than the Ultra.
The next generation of M-series chips starts with the M3, and reports have indicated that the M3 could have a big impact on the Mac. The M3 will be made using the 3 nanometer manufacturing process, which is a change from the current enhanced 5nm process used with the M2 series and the standard 5nm process in the M1. The 3nm process allows for higher transistor density in the chip, which means increased performance and efficiency.
In 2020, we were all blown away by the speed increases we saw when Apple first released the M1 in the 13-inch MacBook Air, 13-inch MacBook Pro, and Mac mini. In some benchmarks, we saw between 50-90% improvements over the Intel processors they replaced. And on laptops, battery life improved not just by minutes, but by hours.
We almost certainly won’t see performance improvements as big as they were in 2020, but they could be more than the 25% we often see in generational corners. It can also mean better power efficiency, which means even better battery life.
How long do we have to wait?
TSMC, the company that makes Apple’s chips, has reportedly been unable to meet Apple’s production demands for the M3 and won’t be able to supply it until 2024. Production priority goes to the A17 Bionic , which would be Apple’s very first 3nm chip. and will be used in the iPhone 15 Pro this fall. With that in mind, along with recent reports from Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman, we can determine when Apple will launch the M3 series of Macs.
The 24-inch iMac is over two years old, but it won’t get an update until the M3 processor arrives.
Dominik Tomaszewski / Foundry
The current iMac is one of two Macs that still have the M1, and it will be nearly three years old by the first quarter of 2024. It’s overdue for an update. According to Gurman, Apple plans to do more than just update the iMac with an M3. Apple is working on an iMac with a screen larger than 30 inches – other specifications for this machine are not provided. If Apple updates the 24-inch iMac with an M3, the company could use an M3 Pro in the larger model and call it the new iMac Pro. Gurman says Apple will update the iMac line in late 2023 or early 2024 with an M3 chip, making it the only Mac to skip the M2 altogether.
The MacBook Air could also be updated in early 2024. The 13-inch model will be nearly two years old by then, and while the 15-inch model has just been released, it’s not uncommon for Apple to upgrade a Mac. less than a year after its launch. Apple will want to emphasize the M3’s extended battery life. Apple is also currently offering a $999 MacBook Air M1, but since it fills the role of the sub-$1,000 model in the Mac lineup, it will remain or be replaced by the M2 model, which currently costs $1,099.
Then there’s the 13-inch MacBook Pro. We assumed it would be gone now that the 15-inch MacBook Pro has arrived, but Gurman reports that Apple has an M3 upgrade in the works. If Apple decides to use this laptop, it will likely ship alongside the M3 MacBook Air.
The Mac mini only recently got its M2 update, so it’s unlikely to get another refresh until 2024 at the earliest.
Dominik Tomaszewski / Foundry
When it comes to figuring out what Apple will do with its remaining M2 Macs, a little more guesswork is required, especially with the M2 Mac mini, released last year. It would seem appropriate to upgrade it to the M3 in early 2024, but then there’s the M2 Pro Mac mini that Apple released last January. An M3 Pro won’t be ready until the second half of 2024, so Apple might wait to upgrade both Mac mini models until then – desktop Macs don’t sell as much as laptops, so Apple would be d agreed to retain the M2 Mac mini upgrade. Gurman doesn’t mention the Mac mini in its latest newsletter, which could indicate that it won’t be updated anytime soon.
After the introduction of the M3, we’ll fall back into the upgrade cycle, with the M3 Pro/Max updates to the 14- and 16-inch MacBook Pros following in the second half of 2024. Perhaps the upgrade Mac Studio to the M3 Max and Ultra and an M3 Ultra Mac Pro update won’t arrive until early 2025.
Whatever Apple does, we’re in a lull before another wave of Mac development. So if you’re sitting out there in the latter part of this year, walking around with macOS Sonoma and wondering what’s wrong with Mac hardware, just remember that good times are ahead.
