Another trip around the sun, and for Apple, this year has been like the calm before the storm. Next year, the Vision Pro will arrive, Apple would launch new next-generation AI-powered operating systems, and the entire iPad product line would likely be updated.
Every year in this space I try to predict what will happen over the next year. And to be honest, every year in this space I Also note my past predictions. (Be honest: how many experts call attention to last year’s experts?)
Last year I “predicted” the future in not one but two different articles. I’m going to say that I was more right than wrong, but I had hoped that 2023 would be a little more overwhelming than it turned out to be.
The Mac surprised
Reading the tea leaves (and various news reports), I correctly predicted that the new MacBook Pros would arrive with new Apple Silicon processors. The question is: should I get double points for this prediction? The answer is no, because I don’t think anyone predicted that Apple would update the MacBook Pro twice in a single calendar year. But that’s what happened, thanks to the early arrival of the M3 chip.
Apple has released not one but two updates to the MacBook Pro in 2023.
Foundry
A year ago, Apple still had an Intel-based Mac mini on its price list because it had only replaced the low-end model with a low-end M1 chip. I correctly predicted that the M2 Mac mini would rectify the problem by shipping with both an M2 chip and an M2 Pro chip, thus knocking Intel out of the price list.
The other Intel Mac that was still working was the Mac Pro, and I predicted that it would also be replaced by an Apple Silicon model, thus closing the books on the Apple Silicon transition. Yes, it happened – and better yet, I described the Mac Pro as more of a “very, very big Mac Studio”, which is Exactly which it turned out to be.
Unfortunately, all this talk about a new Mac Pro has really made me dizzy. One of the first rules of predictions is to never Never predict a new Apple display. Apple displays are never late, like Assistants, they always arrive precisely when they intend to. I’m pretty sure Apple is working on a new cutting-edge external display with expanded dynamic range, but that certainly happened in 2023, much to my regret.
In other Mac news, I correctly guessed that the latest Mac model would be a 15-inch variant of the MacBook Air and that the iMac would receive an update. Unfortunately, I didn’t think the new iMac would have new colors, and I completely failed in my prediction that there would be a larger “iMac Pro” model. Instead, we received a statement from Apple stating that there was no 27-inch iMac in development! Ouch.
Feel the excitement
It’s been a big year for the iPhone, with the new iPhone 15 models featuring USB-C (as I predicted), Dynamic Island coming to non-Pro models (also my prediction), and the iPhone 15 Pro Max with a new camera. “like we’ve never seen before” (my prediction). My only real prediction failure: I thought the larger iPhone would also look a little different, with some “flourishing new designs.” I know a lot of people were hoping for an iPhone Ultra, but that’s not quite what we got.
It was not a big year for the iPad, and that’s an understatement. Literally the biggest hardware announcement for the entire iPad line was Apple’s release of a new Apple Pencil that sits somewhere between the first and second generation models and charges via USB-C.
Who has two thumbs and predicts such a boring year for the iPad? This guy ! In fact, my predictions column referred to 2023 as “iPad: The Quiet Time,” and wow, was it true. Unfortunately, I couldn’t just win and accept that an entire calendar year goes by without a new iPad. So I boarded a unicorn, threw some glitter in the air, and set about predicting a new 15-inch iPad Studio.
What part of “The Quiet Time” didn’t you understand?!
The only noise the iPad made in 2023 was the release of a third Apple Pencil.
Apple
I’ve been pretty vocal when it comes to wearables and home, predicting a new AirPods Max model that didn’t arrive, suggesting the new Apple Watch Series 9 would get an action button, and may -be more boldly predicting that Apple will “actually do it.” something new at home. Apple hasn’t done anything new at home.
Ready, helmet, let’s go!
Did I say Apple would announce an “augmented reality headset”? Yes, indeed, and I’ll take credit for it. Unfortunately, I was way too excited about all the details of what would become the Vision Pro.
First, I completely missed the timing of the product announcement: it was summer, not spring. And I thought the product would ship over the summer – when in fact, as we all know at the end of 2023, it won’t arrive until early 2024.
But perhaps my biggest failed prediction was a complete betrayal of my understanding of how Apple prices its products. I always tell people to imagine the maximum amount they would pay for an Apple product, then round up, then add a little more. Buy a new Apple product it hurts. It’s always a little more expensive than we would like.
Petter Ahrnstedt / Foundry
But even I couldn’t accept the rumors that the Apple headset could cost up to $3,000. It’s just…it’s…it’s impossible that it would cost so much, right? So I gleefully predicted that Apple would shock us all by announcing a headset that would cost “under $2,000.”
Just to be clear: the Vision Pro absolutely will not cost $3,000. I understood this part well. Unfortunately, I took the wrong path. It will start at $3,499, which is about twice as much as I thought. I’m happy to take credit when I’m right, but I have to admit: when I’m wrong, apparently, I’m wrong. Really fake.
