What exactly is Aegon’s fate in the new House of the Dragon?

[Ed. note: Spoilers for House of the Dragon season 2 episode 4 follow. There are also possible spoilers and speculation for the rest of the season, but they’re not informed by the Fire & Blood source material.]

House of the Dragon hasn’t had many real cliffhangers in its short season and a half so far, but it made up for lost time in the latest episode. Here’s our best guess as to what’s next for Aegon II Targaryen after his very fiery crash in House of the Dragon Season 2, Episode 4.

Photo: Ollie Upton/HBO

What if he’s dead?

This is almost certainly the easier of the two options for poor King Aegon. To die in the first great battle of a civil war is humiliating enough for a king, but to die on dragonback is even worse – and he doesn’t have to deal with any of that after he’s already died.

As for the rest of the realm, Aegon’s death would certainly not mean the end of the war. Since he has no son thanks to Blood and Cheese, and a very important precedent for patrilineal succession, Aegon’s crown would most likely pass to his brother Aemond upon his death. As we saw in this battle – and in his possible inclination to destroy his brother – Aemond is even more warlike than his older brother and would fully support a continuation of the war.

And if not?

This could happen in two ways. First, Aegon could rise from Sunfyre’s fiery fall like a phoenix, somehow completely unscathed, probably convinced he is immortal, and ready to fight his civil war with renewed vigor. The only downside is that since Sunfyre seemed to have fared so poorly in battle, Aegon would likely be without a dragon, leaving him in debt to his little brother Aemond, who rides the giant dragon Vhagar. But at least Aegon could still wear his crown and lead his kingdom.

The other possibility is that Aegon survives, but in pretty bad shape. He almost certainly sustained burns in the fighting, probably from his own brother’s dragon, and most of his bones would have had no way of surviving a fall from that height. In that case, Aegon would likely be out of action for a considerable time, leaving Aemond to assume responsibility for the crown once again, albeit not as crowned king, but as Prince Regent – although he would still be named Protector of the Realm, one way or another.

Image: HBO

No matter what happens to Aegon himself, it looks like Sunfire is out of action for good. This isn’t necessarily a death sentence for Aegon’s war, but it does hurt his chances in it. There is no greater resource in the Dance of Dragons than dragons themselves, and having one less – especially if it was big enough to be ridden – is certainly a massive disadvantage.

Whichever way you look at it and whatever happens, Aegon’s decision to go into battle to gain honor and outshine his brother could not have turned out worse. He has lost a dragon, the war’s most important resource, and that may be the least of his problems. Whatever Aegon’s fate, we will have to wait until next week to find out the resolution. House of the Dragonthe biggest cliffhanger yet.