In just one year, ChatGPT has become everywhere. On iPhone, using a shortcut with Siri. On the Apple Watch, via the Petey app and others. And of course throughout the Microsoft office suite, via Copilot, in Bing and Edge. But this is only the beginning of a new era, a simple tool: GPT-4 is incredibly more capable. And as OpenAI indicates, in an officially published document, this could replace thousands of jobs.
GPT-4 includes, among other new features, the ability to generate 25,000-word entries from any topic. You can compose poems and songs, make recipes, create exercise plans, and interpret images. But the most relevant – and worrying – aspect is what they call “exposures”.a measure of the time it takes GPT to learn to perform a task performed by a human in at least 50% of the time it would take that person.
GPT-4 has the potential to affect thousands of jobs
Let’s analyze the document. In the “exposures” mentioned above, there are three variables, E0, E1 and E2. They refer to the exposure range. Where does this ranking come from? The team of professionals OpenAI analyzed 19,262 tasks and 2,087 work processes from the OnetCenter database, which describes the basics of all these professions.
By describing all of these roles, OpenAI was able to calculate how many of these tasks would require additional software, could be done with current LLMs (Large Language Models), or they could simply be imitated without GPT being exposed. In other words, the results presented would be indistinguishable from those that a person could achieve.
And the results are frightening: there are professions such as mathematicians, financial advisors and analysts, notaries and legal administrators, writers and editors, programmers or web interface designers. with 100% exposure. In other words, GPT could replace them by performing all their main tasks. The labor force of these positions could be swapped for GPT-4 and the results would not change much. The first conclusion is of course interesting:
“Our analysis suggests that individuals with bachelor’s, master’s, and professional degrees have greater exposure to GPTs and GPT-based software than those without formal education.”
Ironic: Jobs that require extended training also serve to train the GPT. GPT-4 passes most law, biology, or pure mathematics exams with the highest grade, while failing creation and service tasks. This is a big step: GPT has been evolving since 2018 and In just five years, it is already capable of achieving “human performance” in more than twenty scenarios.
Working in jobs by humans for humans
In the digital sector, we can talk about optimism: 73% of employees do not believe in it. ChatGPT or similar tools lead to the loss of your job, according to data presented in Prosperity Digital’s “2024 Salary Guide”. However, CNET lost all its credibility using AI to generate news and major news organizations like AP signed deals with OpenAI to work with it. And in the middle of this scenario, the thousands of layoffs during the year 2024, the mourned closures like Vice or Domestika and the constant uncertainty.
And therein lies the real irony. Routine programs, software or performance tests for the future iPhone 16? GPT-4 could handle it. Give practical advice and wrap this same iPhone 16 in gift packaging from an Apple Store? Better a flesh and blood person, of course. Store employees can rest assured. Apple is already working on Ajax and MGIE, in addition to having bought companies like DarwinAI. In other words, Cupertino’s bet is clear. But how will this affect us?
As the report states, jobs such as bus drivers, agricultural machinery operators, athletes, cooks, mechanics, plumbers, electricians, masons or carpenters, They have nothing to fear. Nor those intermediary roles that interact more directly with humans. GPT, of course, has no qualities for physical work: that would depend on how this AI would be implemented, in a theoretical future, on an android trained for that.
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