AirPods surplus sales figures for 2019

In recent days, an article released by Kevin Rooke has been floating around the net. It did business accounting, sales and revenue for AirPods over the past few years. This text has attracted a lot of attention because the author says "AirPods generate a lot of revenue like Spotify, Twitter, Snap and Shopify together". However, a closer look at the thoughts and statistics made in that article shows that we are dealing with too much.

Calculation errors and unnecessary calibration of data that is already public

Of course, the statements that Rooke makes are quite intriguing, which is why they go wild like a fire on networks. Well, given that AirPods they have public recognition which has made them a tradition. Besides this, there are far too many errors in calculations and estimates that raise suspicions.

In one of the first episodes, Rooke Makes the following statements:

• He says Apple has sold 215 million iPhone phones a year since 2017, which is true, given that only the official figures for the 2017 and 2018 financial years are known, that number is closer to that figure. In 2019, Apple stopped printing units for sale.
• He says the iPhone has an average retail price of about $ 1,000. False, there are huge price variations, with many models below and where the average price met last year (between $ 700 and $ 800 last year).
• With these two details, it confirms that the iPhone generates $ 215,000 a year in revenue. No calculation required finding fault because this data is public, providing $ 141,000, $ 166,000 and $ 142,000 in the last three fiscal years. The prices are very different from those given by the author.
• He concluded that the iPhone accounts for 81% of the company's earnings, a fact that is unknown where it comes from. In fact Percentage reached between 48.4% and 69.7% quarterly, up to 80% in any case. Also, it's a number that we can count from public data.

None of this to calculate They have a direct bearing on the rating made on AirPods. But it does compel us to become more skeptical after that.

Very optimistic estimates

The thesis Rooke's principal in sales and revenue for AirPods is based on two assumptions:

1. Sales estimates made by analysts over the last three years. 15 million, 35 million again 60 million units respectively.
2. Your "stats" are the average selling price of AirPods, anywhere imposes the same weight on the sale of the three speciess of airpods that lead to $ 12 billion in revenue in 2019.

In the first point, we must be very careful. Details of the AirPods sale are not public and its currency values ​​are grouped under the component that includes the devices wearable, home and other company items. Analysts are therefore forced to make estimates that do not match the facts.

One of the analysts who has had more success in predicting Apple's results, Neil Cybart, has its own financial model. According to Cybart, their prices are based on the belief that consumer stock exchanges are dropping. For the reviewer, Apple would have sold 35 million units in the 2019 financial year. The author points to 60 million units estimated by Bloomberg throughout the 2019 season.

They are not statistics that cover the same time period, but they have significant differences. The problem is that the sources that Bloomberg relies on and from Apple & # 39; s outskirts in Asia are usually inaccurate in its estimates. Apple uses an asymmetric approach when ordering its components, placing orders simultaneously or collecting units to ensure availability. Which can lead to the production of peaks. Getting sales figures from there is a huge risk.

As for the second point, it's a real toast in the sun. Rooke calculates its average price for AirPods considering the retail price of the three models: $ 150 for the first generation; $ 200 second generation assumes everyone is guilty of wireless charging; $ 250 for AirPods Pro. And then to share one third of the 60 million each, resulting in a $ 12 billion deficit in 2019.

It's an extreme calculation, because it's hard to believe that so many users are choosing the model with a wireless charger and that AirPods Pro didn't start selling until the end of October. That is, they were on sale for two months a year. Without a doubt, its price would have compressed the average price, but it is a delicate balance between this model and the wireless case push it up to $ 200.

Cybart, on the other hand, estimates that AirPods stand at around $ 6 billion in fiscal 2019. , gives us an idea of ​​the large deviation of numbers.

There is no doubt that AirPods have a good track record, although we do not know exactly how it works. Finally, we are faced with a matter based on the calculation of questionable origin and poor accuracy. Built-in malware uses more inaccurate data, it improves its deviation from the original.

There are no official details about the sale of AirPods, however articles like Rooke do not help us get closer to the truth. Of course, it's the opposite of the future path to fail and disappointment.