The astronomical community bids farewell to Frank Donald Drake, who passed away on September 2, 2022 at the age of 92.
Are we alone in the universe? There are few issues that matter so much to humanity as a whole. And, as is usual with such fundamental questions, there is no simple answer – certainly not one that is mathematically precise.
But there is a mathematical formula, an equation, that helps us narrow down the answer as we get better at it: the Drake equation. Named after its developer, the American astronomer and astrophysicist Frank Drake, who passed away a few days ago at the age of 92. Did he still see these impressive images from the James Webb Space Telescope?
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An obituary: Frank Donald Drake advocated the systematic search for extraterrestrial civilizations throughout his (scientific) life. In 1960, for example, he started Project Ozma, which, under the umbrella of SETI (Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence), used a radio telescope in the star systems Tau Ceti and Epsilon Eridani to look out for messages from other worlds.
In 1961, Drake called the first SETI conference. In the same year he developed the formula for which he has long since entered the collective memory of mankind. In the form of Drake’s equation, his name will probably reverberate for a long time to come.
What is the Drake equation?
Basically, the Drake equation is not a particularly complex mathematical formula. It simply consists of a whole series of factors that are multiplied together:
N = R* x fp x ne x fl x fi x fc x L
- N: Indicates the number of possible extraterrestrial civilizations able and willing to communicate
- R*: Mean star formation rate per year in the Milky Way
- fp: Proportion of stars with planetary systems
- ne: Average number of planets within the habitable zone
- fl: Percentage of planets with life forms
- fi: Percentage of planets with intelligent life
- fc: Percentage of planets interested in interstellar communication
- L: Average lifespan of a technical civilization in years
We can now estimate some of the factors quite well, such as the star formation rate or the proportion of stars with planetary systems. Others, however, are still waiting to be aired. The new James Webb space telescope should help us here:
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Other factors such as the average lifespan of a technical civilization are generally difficult to answer. Although there are some indications that this form of (intelligent) life only lasts for a short time and tends to self-destruction. Among other things, the sometimes disturbing prophecies of the image AI Midjourney.
So how many extraterrestrial civilizations are there? A publication in Astrophysical Journal from the year 2020 goes from probably
36 civilizations currently signaling in our home galaxy, the Milky Way. However, the result is hotly debated, after all, some of the factors have been practically guessed.
Did you already know the Drake equation? What do you think about such approaches and about the presence of extraterrestrial life in our home galaxy (and in other galaxies) in general? Let us know in the comments!
