To make one thing clear right from the start: Hot air fryers are great, as we in the editorial team know from the urgent recommendations of our good community soul Marylin Marx.
But the remarkable European Championship tip in question could have been worth far more money than the value of an air fryer – if only we had known that it would come true exactly as it was.
Be careful with sports betting: It is legal in Europey to place sports bets with a provider with the sports betting license introduced in 2021. But even in this case, gambling can be addictive (and make you poor). Therefore, caution and prudence are advised.
What exactly happened? Tech writer Matías S. Zavia of the Spanish website Xataka.com used ChatGPT to predict the entire course of the tournament in a prediction game run by his company before the start of the European Championship, with the following remarkable result among others:
Prediction quarter-finals
Europe | 2:1 | Deutschland |
Portugal | 1:2 | France |
England | 2:1 | Croatia |
Italy | 1:2 | Netherlands |
Prediction semi-final
Europe | 2:1 | France |
Netherlands | 1:2 | England |
Prediction Final
In the end, he took first place in the company’s internal betting game and won the hot air fryer, which he happily announced to X:
Link to Twitter content
A tip with problems that still impresses
Predicting the entire tournament outcome is not only unusual, but it also brings with it obvious difficulties.
Italy was eliminated in the round of 16 and Croatia in the group stage. In Zavia’s tips, both teams will still appear in the quarter-finals.
But that doesn’t make ChatGPT’s random hit rate from the quarterfinals onwards any less impressive in this case:
- Quarterfinals: All winners predicted correctly, and twice with exact results (Europe wins 2:1, the Netherlands wins 2:1)
- Semi-finals: Pairings and results predicted exactly
- Finale: Pairing and result predicted exactly
As a reminder, Zavia gave these tips before the tournament even started.
The fact that the AI constantly predicts a 2:1 is less surprising. Statistically speaking, this result occurs very frequently in professional football, as Figures from UEFA itself show.
4:28
My phone now has ChatGPT integrated: This is what it looks like in practice
What kind of profit would have been possible?
First of all, it should be stressed that it is not a good idea to base Predictions
to place bets through ChatGPT.
Either way, it remains a game of chance where you can lose a lot of money.
This is also essentially made clear by Zavia, who says the following about this aspect:
I don’t want to calculate how much money I would have made if I had bet on the ChatGPT results because it never occurred to me (after all, the AI would have changed its prediction if I had asked it again in a new window). But yes, it would probably be enough to buy several Airfyrers.
Nevertheless, a small calculation example is carried out to confirm his assumption:
- The odds of predicting the exact result of 2:1 in the two semi-final matches of the 2024 European Championship were approximately 10.
- A combination bet on both games would therefore have meant odds of 100, because the odds are multiplied by each other.
- For example, if Zavia had bet ten dollars on it, that would mean a profit of 1,000 dollars.
The hot air fryer he won, on the other hand, is worth about 150 dollars.
You can find out who an AI predicted to be the winner of the European Championship here: An AI shows the winner of the Euro 2024 several times and it is (almost) always the same country
But in my opinion, Zavia is doing everything right by simply being happy about his win and not thinking about what would have happened if – even if I couldn’t completely let that go myself because of the remarkably accurate tip.
In the end, I think there are only two questions left: When are you going to make some delicious fries for the whole editorial team, dear Mary? And how do they get crispy from Bavaria to me in North Rhine-Westphalia?
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