Hard drive capacities are expected to increase more and more in the coming years.
The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineering (IEEE) has a new one Hard drive development schedule published. In addition to the SSDs that are now commercially available, the focus was also on the future of classic magnetic hard drives (HDDs).
Flash memory market still in “recovery year”
Basically, SSDs are still in a recovery year, as the IEEE explains. Technological progress in this segment has stalled because the storage capacity built up as a result of the corona pandemic was not sold quickly enough.
No big jumps are expected for 2025 either. After that, a doubling should take place, so to speak, every two years. This is intended to achieve a higher number of layers. More bits per cell are also being discussed. In total, this will lead to a quadrupling of storage density by 2029; Consequently, the SSD capacities available on the market should also increase at the same rate.
| 2023 | 2025 | 2027 | 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Storage density | 1 Tb | 1 Tb/2Tb | 2 Tb/4Tb (TLC+) |
4 Tb/8Tb |
| Bits per cell | TLC | TLC+ | TLC+ | TLC+ |
| 3D-Layer | »High 200« | 300+ | 500+ | N/A |
However, cost reductions also become a problem. With each additional layer, the storage density increases – but so does the processing time and the costs of the associated wafers. The IEEE still sees a need for improvement in design and production.
In principle, the IEEE agrees that SSDs will see a change away from the currently common triple-level cell (TLC), which can store three bits per memory cell.
In the next few years, a market-wide introduction of QLC (quadruple-level cell) or even PLC (penta-level cell), which can store four or five bits per cell, is conceivable. The first demonstrations of both methods have already been successfully carried out.
According to IEEE: HDDs by 2028 with 60 TB
The schedule around HDDs has a slightly different rhythm. In the eyes of the IEEE, the hard drive based on HAMR technology (“Heat-assisted magnetic recording”), which was first publicly presented last year, is seen as a driving force for further progress in the area of capacity.
Here too, however, there are hurdles to overcome and it is not yet entirely certain what form progress will take. According to the IEEE, “decisive advances in (non-)magnetic materials are required for functional read and write performance of HDDs at high surface density.”
| 2022 | 2025 | 2028 | 2031 | 2034 | 2037 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capacity in TB | 1-22 | 2-40 | 6-60 | 7-75 | 8-90 | 10-100 |
| US-Dollar pro TB | 13,6 | 6,91 | 3,46 | 2,6 | 2 | <2 |
Two further points are also addressed in the IEEE development plan. The institute sees the 2.5-inch format for magnetic hard drives as irrelevant enough to no longer be listed from 2028.
Also exciting: Despite all prophecies of doom, the number of HDDs sold is expected to increase from 173 million in 2025 to 359 million units in 2037. At least for the IEEE, the end of the classic HDD is far from being in sight.
