The new generation of graphics cards RTX 4000 from Nvidia is expected by the end of 2022 at the latest. Now there is fresh information on the most important element for the upcoming cards: Nvidia would like the 5 nm chips required for this Digitimes (Paywall article) can be manufactured by the Taiwanese manufacturer TSMC. For the previous generation, i.e. the RTX 3000 series, Nvidia still used 8 nm chips from Samsung.
TSMC is busy with numerous customers such as AMD and Apple, but the chip manufacturer has been working on expanding its capacities since the beginning of the semiconductor crisis. The unbroken strong demand in the production of chips for graphics cards and the like should soon be better absorbed – and that certainly gives hope for the coming generations of graphics cards.
In the RTX-4000 series under the code name Lovelace
further developed 5 nm chips are used. As is usual with a new production facility, they offer more performance and consume less energy. You can read more about this in the article RTX 4000: Biggest performance leap in years, comparable to GTX 1000?
. However, there are two main problems with production:
- Roughly speaking, a separate factory is required for each chip size
- TSMC is one of the few manufacturers in the world that can produce chips of this size
If demand does not drop noticeably, which we do not assume for the time being, the situation can only improve by expanding production capacities and distributing the various clients and the chip sizes required in each case as optimally as possible.
Capacity for Nvidia’s chips could become available in mid-2022
An important bottleneck in chip production could be significantly expanded in 2022: TSMC’s Fab 18.
According to an assessment by our colleagues from Computer base These elements could develop positively by the end of 2022 due to new manufacturing facilities at TSMC and changes in demand. In one of their largest factories, Fab 18 shown in the picture above, the 5 nm chips that Nvidia needs for the new graphics cards are currently being manufactured. However, Apple is buying most of the chips of this size – at least for now.
In mid-2022, even smaller chips of 3 nm are to be manufactured in an expansion of Fab 18. When the production of the smaller chips starts, Apple will primarily buy them. This in turn frees up production capacities for the 5 nm chips that Nvidia can use for the 4000 series.
Blocked capacities should therefore not stand in the way of the graphics card manufacturer if the completion of the production facilities works as planned. However, from this information it cannot be concluded with certainty how many chips TSMC can actually manufacture and how many graphics cards will arrive on the market on time.
More production can lower prices
In addition to graphics cards, microchips are also used in smartphones, cars and many other electronic devices whose manufacturers also want a part of the chip cake. In order to solve the problem, not only are existing factories being expanded, but completely new plants are also being built.
This also applies to TSMC, the plan new plants in the USAwhere both 3-nm and 5-nm chips are to be produced. These plans could also prove important because Intel is also in talks with TSMC. The chip giant basically has its own production facilities in order to be able to meet the high demand, but there are plans to also have chips produced externally. The fact that Intel wants to bring its own desktop graphics cards onto the market at the beginning of 2022 certainly also plays a role.
This kind of expansion and construction of factories takes time, but some of them have passed since the crisis began. In our opinion, the end of 2022 is a realistic period for a noticeable improvement in the situation. Also potentially helpful: The hopefully completed change to the popular crypto currency Ethereum, which would make graphics cards largely unnecessary for mining:
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It is difficult to say whether and how quickly better availability will also affect the crucial sticking point of prices, especially since not only the need for new graphics cards, but also smartphones, cars and other electronics play a role here. However, we are cautiously optimistic about the expected release period of RTX 4000 and especially about the year 2023, which is expected to start shortly thereafter.
How do you assess the situation? Will the RTX-4000 graphics cards experience the same availability and pricing issues as the RTX-3000 generation, is things going to get better or even worse? Feel free to write it in the comments!
