A Game of the Year expert explains how to predict the Game Award winner

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A Game of the Year expert explains how to predict the Game Award winner

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This year Polygon launched GOTY Watch under the leadership of our Editor-in-Chief Oli Welsh. In this section – separate from our own Game of the Year picks coming soon – you'll find analysis of upcoming Game of the Year competitions and award ceremonies, including the most notable, the annual Game Awards in December. In the vein of the Oscars and Emmys, the Game Awards are an increasingly formal event with ever-increasing impact (and potential revenue returns) for its winners and advertising participants. And just as the race for the Oscars and Emmys has become a fascinating topic for readers, it's only natural that a similar rhythm would emerge around the various gaming awards. Over the last few months, we've seen readers enjoy participating in GOTY Watch's analysis and sharing their own theories in the comments and on social media in response to our own.

Earlier this month, Kotaku reporter Ethan Gach's Dead Game newsletter published one Interview with Oli Welsh on GOTY Watch This gives readers an even deeper look into his thought process about awards season, the contestants, and especially the meta surrounding The Game Awards. Oli lays out the patterns he's observed about what types of games tend to win Game of the Year, which he's compiled after analyzing years of winners.

“I would say that it has to have strong narrative elements, so ideally it should be fairly story-driven,” Oli told Dead Game. “Performance should be a pretty big part of it. So you want it to be fully voiced, maybe even motion capture power, high production values… like AAA narrative action adventures or RPGs.

“I analyzed the nominees between the genre categories and Game of the Year and there is almost always an overlap, with four of the six Game of the Year nominees being in the Action-Adventure category. The overlap with RPG is less, but if anything they are more likely to win if nominated.”

This data analysis fueled our regularly updated Game Awards 2024 winners prediction post – but none of us know exactly what will win, and that's just part of the fun.

As Oli put it to Dead Game: “I would say it's all part of elevating the medium and part of elevating the medium is saying, 'This is nonsense, I just want to talk about it.' Arco,' and part of elevating the medium is saying, 'Why, I don't know, why is that?' Dragon Age far more likely to be nominated for the Game of the Year award than Arco?' What systems support this?' We can make that clear to people and maybe it will change some ways of thinking.”

Read the full interview and more comments from Gach about the TGAs at Dead Game.

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