This year marks the 10th anniversary of the Game Awards, and in that time Geoff Keighley’s annual event has established itself as the games industry’s premier awards show – the Oscars of Gaming. It’s still so overloaded with advertising that it’s probably still known more for trailers than awards, but that’s changing. And while the winners tend to be conservative, they broadly represent the critical consensus. The voting panel is made up of a wide range of international gaming media, so there’s a good chance your favorite publications and critics’ picks will be factored into the Game Awards. (Polygon does.)
The night’s top prize is, of course, Game of the Year – and there are clear indicators of what constitutes Game of the Year at the Game Awards, based on a decade of data. On November 18, the Game Awards announced the nominees for these and all other categories, largely confirming these indicators. Nevertheless, in 2024 it is a particularly open race with no fixed leader. After crunching the numbers and taking the temperatures, we’ll pick the likely Game of the Year winner below and rank the remaining six nominees in order of how likely they are to win. We’ll find out if we got it right when the winner is announced at the Game Awards on December 12th.
Update (November 18th): After the nominations were announced, we replaced our list of six expected nominees with the six actually nominees. How well did we do? We got the top four right but didn’t call Elden Ring: Shadow of the Earth Tree (There was confusion about his eligibility, which was only publicly confirmed last week) or Black Myth: Wukongwhich we dropped from our rankings some time ago – which makes us even more fooled for underestimating the international vote. We’ve also removed references to all the unfortunate dark horses that didn’t make it. Just for the record, these included Like a Dragon: Infinite Wealth, Dragon’s Dogma 2, Helldivers 2, Animal welfareAnd The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom.
What will GOTY win?
Image: Team Asobi/Sony Interactive Entertainment
Why it could win: With a Metascore of 94 at the time of writing, Team Asobi’s delightful platformer enjoys the strongest critical consensus of any game this year (and rightly so). Elden Ring‘S Shadow of the Earth Tree Extension. It’s also technically excellent, which is historically a strong plus in GOTY terms.
Weaken: Games nominated in the “Family” category, as AstroBot is to rarely make a breakthrough in the main competition. However, the film also received a nomination in the Action/Adventure category, which has produced many winners in the past.
Dynamics (remaining stable): AstroBot has united a broad mass of critics and fans like no other game this year; Its quality is obvious, its mood is optimistic and entirely unproblematic, and few critics are immune to its blatant nostalgic appeal. It is tied with seven nominations Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth as the most nominated game. In a confusing year, it seems to be the default choice and the game to beat so far.
The rest of the GOTY nominees ranked
Image: Atlus
Why it could win: The unique role-playing games from Atlus’ Studio Zero have long been critical darlings, but Persona 5 (which was nominated for GOTY and won Best RPG in 2017) helped them reach new levels of popularity and recognition. Now metaphor is here to ride this wave. With solid gameplay mechanics, strong storytelling and memorable characters in a popular genre, this could be the moment Atlus’ RPG brand eclipses genre star Final Fantasy. Despite its lack of name recognition, Persona is already Atlus’ fastest-selling game.
Weaken: Despite their increasing popularity, Atlus’ games still operate in an expanding niche rather than mainstream, and the old-school turn-based combat is off-putting to some (though you may have said similar things about last year’s winner, Baldur’s Gate 3).
momentum (light 📉): metaphorThe Metascore has settled in at an astounding 94, and it’s such a deep game that most critics who have committed to it are still deep in the green, discovering the delicious complexity of its late-game combat system. It has six nominations, second AstroBot
3. Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth
Image: Square Enix via Polygon
Why it could win: A major production from a famous series in a popular genre, with strong story and performance elements and a Metacritic rating of over 90, Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth has no comparison this year. The game also benefits from enthusiastic fan support in the PlayStation community (it is exclusive to the PS5), winning the title of “Most Anticipated” in 2023.
Weaken: According to publisher Square Enix themselves, sales were somewhat disappointing, and the critical consensus on this isn’t quite as unanimous as 92 Metascore suggests.
momentum (light 📈): After a while it seemed to be outmaneuvered Metaphor: ReFantasiaRecency bias and greater critical credibility, Rebirth has bounced back with a strong set of nominations, including in the key categories of Direction, Performance and Narrative. It will also likely benefit from support in the public vote.
Image: LocalThunk/Playstack
Why it could win: Regarding indie darlings, poker roguelike Balatro is right up there with the likes Animal welfare And UFO 50with a Metascore of 90. It’s also being played more and more regularly – not only is it popular, but the people who like it are probably still playing it and probably won’t stop before they vote. It might be the hardest game of the year.
Weaken: It’s a purely systemic card game with no narrative elements, which traditionally doesn’t go down well at the Game Awards. There is also a question mark over how broad the international appeal is, an important factor for the TGA’s diverse voting panel.
dynamics (light 📈): BalatroThe handy new mobile version of has arrived at just the right time to remind the judges why they couldn’t stop playing it in February. And it performed above average with five nominations – even in Game Direction, where games of this type rarely or never appear. Not to be ruled out.
5. Elden Ring: Shadow of the Earth Tree
Image: FromSoftware/Bandai Namco via Polygon
Why it could win: Shadow of the Earth Tree is a significant expansion of the game that won the GOTY in 2022. It is also the highest rated release of the year and is still at the top List from MetacriticAlthough AstroBot And metaphor I’ve kept up with it ever since. The awe that people have Elden Ring and the FromSoftware project in general is still a force to be reckoned with.
Weaken: It’s an extension. Game of the Year eligibility came as a surprise to some members of the voting jury – but that being said, the perception that it’s something additional rather than an entirely new work will definitely hold the game back.
Momentum (new entry 📈): Earth tree has secured four nominations, including for Best RPG, and has moved well to the top of the list we thought possible for a DLC.
Image: Game Science
Why it could win: A major technical showpiece in a popular genre, this Chinese action-adventure appears to have strong popular support: it’s one of the two most-mentioned games alongside it in GOTY online discussions FF7 Rebirth. Even if the public vote is only 10% of the final vote, these singing fans are sure to push for it.
Weaken: With a metascore of 81, Black Myth: Wukong is at the bottom of the critical consensus when it comes to Game of the Year nominations. And despite being a big seller, a large portion of the audience appears to be in China, which accounts for only a small proportion of the visible voting panel. The developer Game Science is politically controversial, which could also deter some voters.
Momentum (Re-entry 📈): Wukong is a true dark horse that overcomes a certain level of critical snobbery, earns China its first GOTY nomination and delights its legion of fans. But that’s probably all – especially considering the nomination in the Action category, a genre that rarely makes it into Game of the Year.
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