Last year was a bit quiet for Apple, but 2024 is shaping up to be noisy. The launch of the Vision Pro, a new product running a new operating system in a new category (for Apple), more or less guarantees this. But there’s much more than the release of Apple’s Vision Pro in 2024.
Let’s take a look at what this year will bring us through the lens of your longtime Apple-watching columnist and his somewhat murky crystal ball. After all, how better to think about the future than to predict it on a website?
iPad Clarity
After a year in which the biggest iPad announcement was a new (weird) Apple Pencil model, 2024 is a year where Apple will likely refresh every iPad model. Much ink has been spilled over whether the iPad product line was too complex and confusing, and I’m here to tell you that in 2024 things will become less confusing, but only to a certain extent.
For a few years now, it’s been unclear where the iPad Air stands, as it’s similar in many ways to the iPad Pro. In 2024, I think this distinction will become much clearer, which should make the iPad line much easier to analyze. The iPad Air, which received a new design in 2022, is set to receive a minor overhaul – with it rumored to be released in 11- and 12.9-inch models.
If these sizes look familiar, that’s because they are the current sizes of the small and big iPad Pro models. Wait, another iPad Air? Is not it more confusing?
I do not think so. The iPad Air, which uses Touch ID instead of Face ID and will not benefit from the latest and greatest Apple processors, will continue to use the Magic Keyboard introduced in 2020. It will settle down as a product with some appeal for the general public, but without the higher price. -final features that will be limited to the iPad Pro.
In the meantime, the iPad Pro will fully adopt the “Pro” in its name. Both models will get bigger and sport gorgeous OLED screens. With the new sizes will come new accessories, including a new keyboard case. This case will feature aluminum elements that will make the resulting iPad feel closer to a MacBook than the current model. I suspect it will also offer a full range of functions like Apple’s other keyboards – and a backlight like the company’s laptops.
Prices will undoubtedly increase with the addition of OLED…and this keyboard won’t be cheap either. But as the iPad Air continues to be available at a more reasonable price, the iPad Pro will appeal to people who like the modularity and portability of the iPad and who have the means to apply it to their professional lives. (If Apple really wanted to make the iPad Pro attractive, it would allow users to run a virtual copy of macOS on that M3 processor – although I’m not sick enough to make that prediction.)
Foundry
In low-end iPad news, say goodbye to the Home button. The 9th generation iPad will finally die, with the 10th generation model taking its place on the price list. A new, slightly improved 11th generation model will debut above. And this original Apple Pencil, with its Lightning port and strange Lightning to USB adapter, will go down in history.
Mac iteration at your fingertips
With the M3 processor already available globally, I suspect the 2024 Mac will be largely about updating existing models to add the M3. The best-selling Mac of all, the MacBook Air, will almost certainly receive an M3 model. The question is: what happens to existing MacBook Airs? I’m going to predict that the M2 model will be phased out since the M3 model will use the same modern design… but the trusty (and cheap!) M1 model will remain. At some point, Apple will probably have to make a MacBook SE, but this doesn’t seem to be the year.
Beyond the MacBook Air, I think all existing Mac models will see M3 updates. Yes, that doesn’t just mean the Mac mini but also the Mac Studio and Mac Pro. And just when we least expect it, Apple will update its input devices from Lightning to USB-C… at least a year later than we all hoped. However, no new standalone Apple display this year. I’ve been burned too many times.
Jason Cross / Foundry
Uninspiring iPhone changes
Rumor has it that the iPhone Pro models will be slightly larger than this year’s models, adding screen real estate at the cost of a slight increase in weight. I appreciated the removal of heavy stainless steel from this year’s models, but Apple still has room to experiment, and no smartphone maker has been punished for giving users larger screens. This seems reasonable.
I imagine all iPhones will get better at shooting spatial video, with Pro models getting improved cameras and base iPhones getting the capability for the first time. There might be some minor camera upgrades, but honestly, this looks like a year where iPhone hardware updates will be relatively minor.
On the software side, though… this looks like the year Apple will aggressively show off its attempts to integrate more machine learning-based technologies into its devices. Some of this will be rolling out at WWDC in June, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there are also a series of ML-specific features that will only be enabled by the pro-level chip on the iPhone 16 Pro models… because Software features can also be hardware differentiators, especially when the hardware isn’t really different.
More broadly, yes, I think Siri 2.0 is coming, and it will be based on a ChatGPT-like language model – with a lot of guardrails and limitations that make it less useful than other chatbots, but with less risk of hallucination. and inaccuracy. And it will probably be labeled as beta, just in case.
Same old watch and new TV content
Is this the year the standard Apple Watch gets its first hardware overhaul? These are rumors, but I don’t see them. While this fall will mark the 10th anniversary of the Apple Watch, next year will be the actual anniversary of the device’s delivery. I think a new Apple Watch is on the horizon, but the Apple Watch Ultra just appeared in late 2022. It feels like Apple may wait another year before breaking band compatibility.
David Price / Foundry
On the services side, I predict Apple will strike another sports rights deal. Maybe the NBA? Maybe something 3D related for Vision Pro? Something, though. Apple sees sports rights as a powerful opportunity to bring people into its ecosystem, led by some executives (Eddy Cue) who are true sports fans and understand the appeal.
While many major studios brimming with familiar intellectual property assets will be up for discussion (consolidation is coming to Hollywood), I can’t predict Apple will step in and buy out part of, say, Paramount Global. Instead, I expect Apple to be rumored to be in talks and kicking the tires on various surprising Hollywood deals and being used as an extremely wealthy stalking horse. But ultimately, I think Apple will be reluctant to make such deals. Too much “not invented here” attitude. I think Apple wants to do it on its own, which means creating a catalog from scratch, without writing a check to be able to own Star Trek and Yellowstone.
Vision Pro is in the air
It doesn’t take much forethought to predict that Vision Pro will ship because Apple has said so and shipping seems imminent. But I don’t think there will be a clear verdict on the device by the end of the year. This is a 1.0 product with a hefty price tag, and that’s why most reviewers will praise its technical prowess and some of its amazing features while expressing some skepticism about the entire category and warning potential buyers that it is simply too early to spend a large amount of money. a device like this.
We can read the tea leaves and try to see if Apple is worried or happy, but even though the Vision Pro is a pretty crazy shot, I don’t think it’s going to fail instantly. It will almost certainly sell out, but again, given the limited quantity of devices – estimated at half a million – I don’t think a sale will tell us much about whether it’s success or failure.
Foundry
One point to look at will be developer adoption. What apps are there at launch? Once developers get their hands on the shipping hardware, will there be a bunch of interesting experimental apps in the App Store? Or will the whole device seem silent and sterile beyond Apple’s own contributions? My guess is that there will be fewer apps than you think, but some developers will get huge publicity for creating clever things that Apple never even thought of. I also predict a visionOS 2 announcement at WWDC with some major new features that weren’t in the first version of the product.
Will we know by the end of the year whether Vision Pro is a success or a failure? I say no. For that answer, you’ll probably have to read next year’s annual forecast column — or maybe even wait for the one after that.
Table of Contents