In a new article published today on Medium, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo outlines some expectations for the iPhone models coming this year. Most of these corroborate previous iPhone 17 rumors and Kuo's own previous statements, but there is one interesting tidbit: the iPhone 17 Air could be much thinner than originally announced.
While previous rumors put the iPhone 17 Air at around 6.25mm, Kuo claims that the “thinner part” of the iPhone 17 Air (or whatever Apple calls the ultra-thin model ) will only measure 5.5 mm. However, it's unclear what exactly he means by that: the ultra-thin iPhone 17 could have a tapered design, or it could simply refer to rounded edges that leave less room for certain internal parts close to the edge of the phone. But that means the iPhone 17 Air will be incredibly thin.
So thin, in fact, that compromises will have to be made. In Kuo's report, it is the SIM card tray that is the center of attention. Kuo says, as others have, that there is no room for a physical tray in the iPhone 17 Air, so it will rely solely on eSIM. This isn't a big deal for the US, which has been using eSIM for a while, but it could cause big problems when trying to sell the phone in China, where physical SIM cards are required. We've also heard reports that the phone's thinness could mean a smaller battery and fewer cameras.
This and other factors lead Kuo to believe that iPhone sales in 2025 could actually be 8% to 10% lower than expected. This is true even with the launch of the new iPhone SE this spring and the exciting new models in the fall. Kuo has built a reputation for predicting future iPhone models and sales targets more accurately than most, thanks to a wealth of contacts throughout Apple's supply chain.
Kuo further claims that Apple Intelligence did not boost iPhone sales. Customers simply aren't excited because the quality of Apple's offering lags behind competing AI solutions. Additionally, Apple Intelligence is a phased rollout with its most exciting and unique new feature – a more useful and personal Siri – still months away from release.
Apple is expected to launch the iPhone 17 AIr in September as a replacement for the iPhone 17 Plus. However, it is expected to be priced higher than the $899 iPhone 15 Plus, which could also hurt sales, Kuo claims.
