The rumor that Mark Gurman published yesterday is one of those that can change everything: Apple seems to be preparing to accept third-party app stores alongside the App Store on iOS. It would be the end of the original 2009 system model and the start of a new era for the iPhone.
Given the panorama, many thought about the loss of revenue this would mean for Apple and its services division. But at Morgan Stanley, they did a study in order to reassure everyone: in the worst case, in Cupertino, they would only lose “a small change”
The estimate they made at Morgan Stanley, reflected in Appleinsider, shows us a scenario in which 30% of users abandon the App Store and become dependent on other alternative stores. The source considers this very unlikely, since a poll shows that would be the maximum number of people who would be willing to do so (and in exchange for a lower price).
What would happen if all EU App Store revenue was lost in this scenario? Well, that would mean losing 4% of service division revenue. Or something similar: only 1% of all revenue the company would achieve in 2024
In absolute terms, we are talking about millions of dollars of revenue that would disappear, but 2% is not at all something that affects the financial health of Apple as such. In addition, Morgan Stanley claims that the majority of users would remain loyal to the App Store to “not have to give their data to too many services” and for security reasons.
