We’ve seen for some time how the still-unfolding lockdowns in China (and geopolitical tensions) have derailed production of Apple devices and other tech companies, prompting Cupertino to set in motion plans to manufacture their devices in other countries and thus spread the risk. Now Ming-Chi Kuo thinks he knows the medium and long-term plans to achieve this.
What is made in China, for China
In a series of tweets, the analyst divided Apple’s supposed short, medium and long-term goals. Yes, iPhone production has been diverted to countries like India, but at present, much of the above is aimed at this same market without crossing borders. Kuo believes the joint efforts of Tata Group, Wistron and Pegatron can increase this production in India so that more Western iPhones come from there and not from China.
The same goes for laptops: right now, all MacBooks are produced in China, and apparently Apple is looking move at least part of this production to Thailand for this country to be the main manufacturer and “exporter” for America and Europe.
Such an effort does not happen overnight. Kuo estimates that for another 3 or 5 years we will not see a significant change in production, something he describes as 30% of that sent to the United States does not come from China.
The ultimate goal is for Apple devices sold in China to be made in China., while those sold in other markets around the world are manufactured and shipped from other countries. India, Thailand, Vietnam… even the United States might have some production capacity. So if something happened in China, sales in that country would be affected, but global production would not.
Now well, even Kuo doesn’t dare to say how long it will take for this to happen. If we have to wait 3 to 5 years to reach 30% of this objective (and without playing with the calculations of which products can be manufactured where and respecting the environment, rights…), I would calculate a good twenty years to achieve his. And the world could be a very different place in 2042: China is already looking for a way to attract companies to curb this trend.
