How long will it take for prices in the graphics card market to normalize again? Hardly any other question has been as hot and, above all, discussed as often as this one this year. Unfortunately mostly inconclusive. That the chip crisis could last for many more months Recently, however, suggested a statement from Nvidia. The following example illustrates what strange blossoms the current situation is producing:
Graphics card scarcity is getting crazier
This is how retailers need to protect their exhibition PCs
However, the shortages in the market could last much longer, according to a report from Digitimes (via Computer base). It even mentions up to half a decade; specifically, it should not be possible to close the supply gap before 2026.
ABF substrates: PCBs in the spotlight of the crisis
The reason for this are substrates, so-called to be precise ABF-Substrate
. Pronounced that stands for Ajinomoto Build-up Film
and is an important insulation component for the production of high-end printed circuit boards (PCBs, printed circuit boards).
Circuit boards, in turn, are the basis of chips, including CPUs and GPUs. One of the largest manufacturers of PCBs Unimicron, which also has two branches in Europey, has now given Digitimes specific figures:
Accordingly, there will be a shortage of ABF substrates of at least 20 percent in the coming year. From 2023 onwards, due to slowly growing capacities, a slight improvement is conceivable, but Unimicron does not expect any real relaxation before 2026.
Increasing demand, insufficient production capacity
How much the demand for ABF substrates will increase in the future is illustrated by a forecast by the Austrian circuit board manufacturer AT&S (Austria Technologie & Systemtechnik):
The AT&S example also illustrates why it takes so long to close the gap between high demand and supply. The company invests according to their own statement just the equivalent of 1.7 billion dollars in the construction of a plant in Kulim Hi-Tech Park, 350 kilometers north of the Malaysian capital Kuala Lumpur. The groundbreaking took place on October 30, 2021, and commercial operations are expected to start in 2024.
Future of graphics cards
When does the price go down, how do we play tomorrow?
In the podcast embedded above, GameStar editors Michael Graf, Nils Raettig and Alexander Köpf discuss when the prices for graphics cards will finally drop and how we will generally play in the future.
What do you all mean? Will it really be another half a decade before the situation has finally normalized? Or are you assuming a lot worse than that? Feel free to write it in the comments!
