Which Nintendo console had the biggest start? Not the one you would think …

Nintendo has predicted that it will sell 15 million Switch 2s in the current financial year. Analysts consider the number conservative; Nintendo says that the price for Switch 2 holds this estimate. But what does that really mean? Is it a reasonable goal? If Nintendo hits it, is this guaranteed that the Switch 2 is a massive hit? If a console is sold out at the start, what does that tell us? Is there still the chance of a Wii u-style flop?

It is impossible to know with certainty, but a look at all starts of the past consoles from Nintendo can provide some clues. I dug up deeply in earlier Nintendo sales figures to determine which Nintendo consoles enjoyed the best starts. In order to get a more reliable picture than the initial, almost inevitable sale, I defined the start as the first year (or rather, the first four quarters) on the market.

Note that Nintendo only reported quarterly sales for his systems in the mid -2000s and the earliest data are at best annually and difficult, so that some of these numbers are approximate. Also note that older systems in the three major markets (Japan, North America and Europe), sometimes over several years, have slowed down, and the potential sales slowed down.

Nevertheless, there are some surprising results here that bring the 15 million Nintendo forecast for Switch 2 into context. The sale So many units would definitely not be bad news-but it does not indicate a slam dunk.

Nintendos two fastest sellers have a clear pattern. They were successors of massive hits (The Game Boy and DS) on the handheld market, where Nintendo enjoyed total dominance. Nintendo was so optimistic about Game Boy Advance after the decades of reign of the Game Boy Format It predicts amazing 24 million sales In his first year, while 3DS Nintendo's greatest seller of all time was followed. Both sold well, but also not their ancestors.

The switch and the Wii are the only Nintendo consoles with sales of over 10 million in the first year And Over 100 million in their lives. Quarterly for the quarter, both sold incredibly consistently over time. So it is certainly how Nintendo all of his hardware starts want to look and how it hopes with the Switch 2.

It is a surprise that DS was not started more strongly in view of the outlier of his handheld predecessor Game Boy Advance. But his starting games weren't the best and it took a while for the strange design of the console to find its last massive, informal audience. It suddenly started in the fifth quarter – public holiday in 2005.

The two Nintendo home consoles, which were made during PlayStation, had reasonably strong starts, but are based on the lack of software support. In his first year of sales, Gamecube sold 30% of his lifelong total – an unfortunate performance that even exceeds the dark ratio of Wii U.

Game Boy's legend is that thanks to the takeover of high-stakes, it was immediately an immediate Tetris. But while his start for the time was healthy, it did not begin to show what Nintendos defined handheld in the first year (before it achieved Europe) were only 3% of what it would continue to sell via Game Boy and Game Boy.

Nintendo's youngest (but not worst) flop actually started quite strongly and shifted over 3 million units in the first quarter-he then suffered a catastrophic decline and sold fewer than 900,000 worldwide in the rest of his first year of sales. If you stopped the first vacation sale, the signs of the disaster arriving were clear.

Both early home consoles from Nintendo started strongly in Japan, but took a long time to start in the west. The NES only started in the USA and Europe in 1986, since it was careful after the 1980s -Crashs, while the Snes was beaten in the west by Sega Genesis and suffered as a result.

You cannot get a worse start than to be stopped within one year after the sale!

What does that mean for the start of Switch 2?

When Nintendo hits or exceeds its target of 15 million Switch 2 in his first financial year, it will become the top starts of the Nintendo console of the Nintendo console. A flop with the Wii-U style looks very unlikely, unless the turnover drops strongly after the first few months.

But the most meaningful comparisons here are Nintendo's top two starts: Game Boy Advance and 3DS. Like Switch 2, they were both conservative, easy -to -understand sequels for huge sellers in a market sector in which Nintendo had total control. And while both achieved serious lifespan of the lifespan, they did not come close to the lifetime sales of their more innovative predecessors.

Could this be the fate of Switch 2? Judging according to Nintendo's starting story, this is possible – maybe even likely.